Over the last two years, I’ve been thinking a lot about how this new dawn in artificial intelligence (AI) could potentially affect things in society that we take for granted.
I can't believe you missed one of the biggest likely changes - we're all going to be walking around with Phd smart, maximally conscientious personal assistants in our ears / phones really soon.
This is going to happen because there’s an immense market for it, and because it’s possible with the level of AI minds we have now. The reason we don’t have AI assistants already is largely risk mitigation and CYA dynamics, but as soon as somebody puts together a human-in-the-loop-enough program infrastructure together that’s good enough to derisk it, we’ll be off to the races.
Just imagine - never needing to answer or make another phone call again. Letting your assistant handle arranging the search and optimization process of booking a plane ticket and hotel according to your likes, with you only approving a final decision if you want to. Having all your emails that are low value or non-urgent answered automatically and only brought to your attention when it actually matters. Having useful and apropos interjections and additional insights brought to your attention throughout the day on a hundred different things (personal background on what you last talked about with somebody, useful context when encountering something new, etc). It's going to be a major change.
In the limits, it's going to counterfeit "intelligence" entirely, because everyone will have this Phd smart look at the world, and it's going to overvalue "conscientiousness" even more, because the ones in this future who will be able to succeed at complex multipolar goals like "I want a great spouse, a career that uses all my powers along lines of excellence, and I want to structure my days so I'm healthy, happy, and engaged with life overall" are going to be executed best by people conscientiously following GPT-6's advice.
100% agree. It's already happening to an extent and it is only getting better. I guess I did not add a section to this because I felt your view is explaining the client side of white collar work.
What Toner-Rodgers found was striking: After the tool was implemented, researchers discovered 44% more materials, their patent filings rose by 39% and there was a 17% increase in new product prototypes. Contrary to concerns that using AI for scientific research might lead to a “streetlight effect”—hitting on the most obvious solutions rather than the best ones—there were more novel compounds than what the scientists discovered before using AI.
"Here’s my prediction: within the next 5–10 years, some regions in the U.S., China, and Europe will allow private ownership of fully autonomous cars"
Why do you think private ownership? An "Uber" could own thousands. I would then call a cheap "Uber" to whisk me away and back without having to worry about owning a big, expensive asset.
For sure! It could be the app themselves owning a fleet, the car manufacturer owning a fleet, a franchisee owning a fleet, or an individual owning one. The point is, just like you can buy a property and turn it into a rental, you will be able to buy a vehicle that is autonomous.
I can't believe you missed one of the biggest likely changes - we're all going to be walking around with Phd smart, maximally conscientious personal assistants in our ears / phones really soon.
This is going to happen because there’s an immense market for it, and because it’s possible with the level of AI minds we have now. The reason we don’t have AI assistants already is largely risk mitigation and CYA dynamics, but as soon as somebody puts together a human-in-the-loop-enough program infrastructure together that’s good enough to derisk it, we’ll be off to the races.
Just imagine - never needing to answer or make another phone call again. Letting your assistant handle arranging the search and optimization process of booking a plane ticket and hotel according to your likes, with you only approving a final decision if you want to. Having all your emails that are low value or non-urgent answered automatically and only brought to your attention when it actually matters. Having useful and apropos interjections and additional insights brought to your attention throughout the day on a hundred different things (personal background on what you last talked about with somebody, useful context when encountering something new, etc). It's going to be a major change.
In the limits, it's going to counterfeit "intelligence" entirely, because everyone will have this Phd smart look at the world, and it's going to overvalue "conscientiousness" even more, because the ones in this future who will be able to succeed at complex multipolar goals like "I want a great spouse, a career that uses all my powers along lines of excellence, and I want to structure my days so I'm healthy, happy, and engaged with life overall" are going to be executed best by people conscientiously following GPT-6's advice.
100% agree. It's already happening to an extent and it is only getting better. I guess I did not add a section to this because I felt your view is explaining the client side of white collar work.
What Toner-Rodgers found was striking: After the tool was implemented, researchers discovered 44% more materials, their patent filings rose by 39% and there was a 17% increase in new product prototypes. Contrary to concerns that using AI for scientific research might lead to a “streetlight effect”—hitting on the most obvious solutions rather than the best ones—there were more novel compounds than what the scientists discovered before using AI.
https://www.wsj.com/economy/will-ai-help-hurt-workers-income-productivity-5928a389?st=dj5eQq&reflink=mobilewebshare_permalink
"Here’s my prediction: within the next 5–10 years, some regions in the U.S., China, and Europe will allow private ownership of fully autonomous cars"
Why do you think private ownership? An "Uber" could own thousands. I would then call a cheap "Uber" to whisk me away and back without having to worry about owning a big, expensive asset.
For sure! It could be the app themselves owning a fleet, the car manufacturer owning a fleet, a franchisee owning a fleet, or an individual owning one. The point is, just like you can buy a property and turn it into a rental, you will be able to buy a vehicle that is autonomous.
I'm always interested in prediction posts like this. Thank you for making this!